Global oil prices rose on Monday, September 15, 2025, as markets reacted to Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries, sparking concerns about potential disruptions to Russia’s crude and fuel exports. At the same time, investors are closely monitoring U.S. fuel demand and economic signals.
Brent crude futures increased by 36 cents (0.5%), reaching $67.35 per barrel as of 06:32 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 36 cents (0.6%) to $63.05 per barrel.
Both benchmarks gained over 1% last week after Ukraine intensified attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure, including Primorsk, the country’s largest oil export terminal, and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of Russia’s top two refineries.
“The attack suggests a growing willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which could add upward pressure on prices,” analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, stated in a note referencing the Primorsk strike.
Primorsk handles about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, making it a critical hub for Russian oil exports and the largest port in western Russia. Meanwhile, the Kirishi refinery, operated by Surgutneftegaz, processes roughly 355,000 bpd (17.7 million metric tons annually), representing 6.4% of Russia’s total refining capacity.
“If Ukraine is now strategically targeting Russia’s oil export infrastructure, that creates upside risks for future price forecasts,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets, noting that this comes amid concerns of oversupply as OPEC+ prepares to increase output.
Despite the attacks, Governor Radiy Khabirov confirmed that a Bashkortostan oil company will maintain production levels, underscoring Russia’s intent to keep exports steady.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated on Sunday that Washington is prepared to impose additional sanctions on Russia, urging European nations to match U.S. efforts.
At the same time, U.S.-China trade talks commenced in Madrid on Sunday, with Washington pushing its allies to implement tariffs on Chinese imports due to Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil.
Meanwhile, economic concerns in the U.S. are influencing market sentiment. Slower job growth and rising inflation have fueled worries about a potential slowdown in the world’s largest economy and top oil consumer. These factors are expected to play a role in the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 meeting, where a rate cut is widely anticipated.
